DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3401-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84992108788
论文题名: Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil
作者: Barreto N.J.C. ; Mesquita M.S. ; Mendes D. ; Spyrides M.H.C. ; Pedra G.U. ; Lucio P.S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1583
结束页码: 1596
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Madden–Julian Oscillation
; Maximum Covariance Analysis
; MITB index
; Tropical climate
英文摘要: A reliable prognosis of extreme precipitation events in the tropics is arguably challenging to obtain due to the interaction of meteorological systems at various time scales. A pivotal component of the global climate variability is the so-called intraseasonal oscillations, phenomena that occur between 20 and 100 days. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is directly related to the modulation of convective precipitation in the equatorial belt, is considered the primary oscillation in the tropical region. The aim of this study is to diagnose the connection between the MJO signal and the regional intraseasonal rainfall variability over tropical Brazil. This is achieved through the development of an index called Multivariate Intraseasonal Index for Tropical Brazil (MITB). This index is based on Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) applied to the filtered daily anomalies of rainfall data over tropical Brazil against a group of covariates consisting of: outgoing longwave radiation and the zonal component u of the wind at 850 and 200 hPa. The first two MCA modes, which were used to create the MITB1 and MITB2 indices, represent 65 and 16 % of the explained variance, respectively. The combined multivariate index was able to satisfactorily represent the pattern of intraseasonal variability over tropical Brazil, showing that there are periods of activation and inhibition of precipitation connected with the pattern of MJO propagation. The MITB index could potentially be used as a diagnostic tool for intraseasonal forecasting. © 2016, The Author(s). 资助项目: CAPES, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
; CAPES, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
; CNPq, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53067
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN, Brazil; Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Barreto N.J.C.,Mesquita M.S.,Mendes D.,et al. Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(2017-05-06)