DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3436-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84994721711
论文题名: Increase in the potential predictability of the Arctic Oscillation via intensified teleconnection with ENSO after the mid-1990s
作者: Kang D. ; Lee M.-I.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 2147
结束页码: 2160
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic Oscillation
; Decadal variability
; ENSO
; North American multimodel ensemble
; Seasonal prediction
; Teleconnection
英文摘要: This study examines why the seasonal prediction skill of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has increased significantly since the mid-1990s in state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems in operation. This skill increase is primarily attributed to variability over the North Atlantic with an enhanced connection between the AO and the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The relationship between ENSO and AO depends primarily on low-frequency variability in the North Pacific driven by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, as represented by the Hawaiian sea level pressure (SLPHI) index. When the sign of the SLPHI index and that of the NINO3.4 index are out-of-phase (in-phase) with the variability center of ENSO shifted to the central Pacific (eastern Pacific), more intense (weaker) ENSO-AO teleconnection results. Linear barotropic model experiments with prescribed ENSO forcing and differing phase and intensity of SLPHI support the observed relationship in La Niña years, highlighting the important and independent role of the SLPHI variability as a modulator of the ENSO teleconnection to higher latitudes. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NRF, National Research Foundation of Korea
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53068
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, 50 UNIST-gil, Ulsan, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Kang D.,Lee M.-I.. Increase in the potential predictability of the Arctic Oscillation via intensified teleconnection with ENSO after the mid-1990s[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(2017-05-06)