DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3409-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84994234396
论文题名: CMIP5 ensemble-based spatial rainfall projection over homogeneous zones of India
作者: Akhter J. ; Das L. ; Deb A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1885
结束页码: 1916
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bias correction
; CMIP5 models
; Homogeneous rainfall zones
; MME
; Performance metrics
; RCP 4.5 and 8.5
英文摘要: Performances of the state-of-the-art CMIP5 models in reproducing the spatial rainfall patterns over seven homogeneous rainfall zones of India viz. North Mountainous India (NMI), Northwest India (NWI), North Central India (NCI), Northeast India (NEI), West Peninsular India (WPI), East Peninsular India (EPI) and South Peninsular India (SPI) have been assessed using different conventional performance metrics namely spatial correlation (R), index of agreement (d-index), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Ratio of RMSE to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) and mean bias (MB). The results based on these indices revealed that majority of the models are unable to reproduce finer-scaled spatial patterns over most of the zones. Thereafter, four bias correction methods i.e. Scaling, Standardized Reconstruction, Empirical Quantile Mapping and Gamma Quantile Mapping have been applied on GCM simulations to enhance the skills of the GCM projections. It has been found that scaling method compared to other three methods shown its better skill in capturing mean spatial patterns. Multi-model ensemble (MME) comprising 25 numbers of better performing bias corrected (Scaled) GCMs, have been considered for developing future rainfall patterns over seven zones. Models’ spread from ensemble mean (uncertainty) has been found to be larger in RCP 8.5 than RCP4.5 ensemble. In general, future rainfall projections from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 revealed an increasing rainfall over seven zones during 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The maximum increase has been found over southwestern part of NWI (12–30%), northwestern part of WPI (3–30%), southeastern part of NEI (5–18%) and northern and eastern part of SPI (6–24%). However, the contiguous region comprising by the southeastern part of NCI and northeastern part of EPI, may experience slight decreasing rainfall (about 3%) during 2020s whereas the western part of NMI may also receive around 3% reduction in rainfall during both 2050s and 2080s. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53069
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Physics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India; Department of Agricultural Meteorology and Physics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, WB, India
Recommended Citation:
Akhter J.,Das L.,Deb A.. CMIP5 ensemble-based spatial rainfall projection over homogeneous zones of India[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(2017-05-06)