DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3417-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84992188058
论文题名: How well can the observed Arctic sea ice summer retreat and winter advance be represented in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2?
作者: Collow T.W. ; Wang W. ; Kumar A. ; Zhang J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1651
结束页码: 1663
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic sea ice
; CFSv2
; PIOMAS
; Retreat/advance dates
英文摘要: The capability of a numerical model to simulate the statistical characteristics of the summer sea ice date of retreat (DOR) and the winter date of advance (DOA) is investigated using sea ice concentration output from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 model (CFSv2). Two model configurations are tested, the operational setting (CFSv2CFSR) which uses initial data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and a modified version (CFSv2PIOMp) which ingests sea ice thickness initialization data from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) and includes physics modifications for a more realistic representation of heat fluxes at the sea ice top and bottom. First, a method to define DOR and DOA is presented. Then, DOR and DOA are determined from the model simulations and observational sea ice concentration from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Means, trends, and detrended standard deviations of DOR and DOA are compared, along with DOR/DOA rates in the Arctic Ocean. It is found that the statistics are generally similar between the model and observations, although some regional biases exist. In addition, regions of new ice retreat in recent years are represented well in CFSv2PIOMp over the Arctic Ocean, in terms of both spatial extent and timing. Overall, CFSv2PIOMp shows a reduction in error throughout the Arctic. Based on results, it is concluded that the model produces a reasonable representation of the climatology and variability statistics of DOR and DOA in most regions. This assessment serves as a prerequisite for future predictability experiments. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: CPO, Climate Program Office
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53075
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: INNOVIM, LLC, Greenbelt, MD, United States; NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, MD, United States; Polar Science Center, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Collow T.W.,Wang W.,Kumar A.,et al. How well can the observed Arctic sea ice summer retreat and winter advance be represented in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2?[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(2017-05-06)