DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3410-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84992692822
论文题名: How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble
作者: Yettella V. ; Kay J.E.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1765
结束页码: 1781
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
; Extratropical cyclones
; Initial condition ensembles
; Precipitation
; Storm tracks
英文摘要: The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016–2035) than in the far-future (2081–2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: University of Colorado Boulder
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53103
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC), University of Colorado at Boulder, 216 UCB, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Yettella V.,Kay J.E.. How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(2017-05-06)