globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3388-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84991098121
论文题名:
Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales
作者: Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E.; Barthélemy A.; Chevallier M.; Cullather R.; Fučkar N.; Massonnet F.; Posey P.; Wang W.; Zhang J.; Ardilouze C.; Bitz C.M.; Vernieres G.; Wallcraft A.; Wang M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期:4
起始页码: 1399
结束页码: 1410
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic ; Forecast uncertainty ; Sea ice ; Seasonal forecast
英文摘要: Dynamical model forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of September Arctic sea-ice extent over the last decade have shown lower skill than that found in both idealized model experiments and hindcasts of previous decades. Additionally, it is unclear how different model physics, initial conditions or forecast post-processing (bias correction) techniques contribute to SIO forecast uncertainty. In this work, we have produced a seasonal forecast of 2015 Arctic summer sea ice using SIO dynamical models initialized with identical sea-ice thickness in the central Arctic. Our goals are to calculate the relative contribution of model uncertainty and irreducible error growth to forecast uncertainty and assess the importance of post-processing, and to contrast pan-Arctic forecast uncertainty with regional forecast uncertainty. We find that prior to forecast post-processing, model uncertainty is the main contributor to forecast uncertainty, whereas after forecast post-processing forecast uncertainty is reduced overall, model uncertainty is reduced by an order of magnitude, and irreducible error growth becomes the main contributor to forecast uncertainty. While all models generally agree in their post-processed forecasts of September sea-ice volume and extent, this is not the case for sea-ice concentration. Additionally, forecast uncertainty of sea-ice thickness grows at a much higher rate along Arctic coastlines relative to the central Arctic ocean. Potential ways of offering spatial forecast information based on the timescale over which the forecast signal beats the noise are also explored. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: ONR, Office of Naval Research
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53113
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium; Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, UMR 3589, Météo France, Toulouse, France; Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, Hancock County, MS, United States; NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States; Applied Physics Laboratory, Polar Science Center, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Greenbelt, MD, United States; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E.,Barthélemy A.,Chevallier M.,et al. Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(4)
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