DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3327-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84984621740
论文题名: Continental-scale convection-permitting modeling of the current and future climate of North America
作者: Liu C. ; Ikeda K. ; Rasmussen R. ; Barlage M. ; Newman A.J. ; Prein A.F. ; Chen F. ; Chen L. ; Clark M. ; Dai A. ; Dudhia J. ; Eidhammer T. ; Gochis D. ; Gutmann E. ; Kurkute S. ; Li Y. ; Thompson G. ; Yates D.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 71
结束页码: 95
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Convection-permitting
; Pseudo global warming
; Regional climate simulation
; Water cycle
英文摘要: Orographic precipitation and snowpack provide a vital water resource for the western U.S., while convective precipitation accounts for a significant part of annual precipitation in the eastern U.S. As a result, water managers are keenly interested in their fate under climate change. However, previous studies of water cycle changes in the U.S. have been conducted with climate models of relatively coarse resolution, leading to potential misrepresentation of key physical processes. This paper presents results from a high-resolution climate change simulation that permits convection and resolves mesoscale orography at 4-km grid spacing over much of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two 13-year simulations were performed, consisting of a retrospective simulation (October 2000–September 2013) with initial and boundary conditions from ERA-interim and a future climate sensitivity simulation with modified reanalysis-derived initial and boundary conditions through adding the CMIP5 ensemble-mean high-end emission scenario climate change. The retrospective simulation is evaluated by validating against Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) and an ensemble of gridded observational datasets. It shows overall good performance capturing the annual/seasonal/sub-seasonal precipitation and surface temperature climatology except for a summer dry and warm bias in the central U.S. In particular, the WRF seasonal precipitation agrees with SNOTEL observations within a few percent over the mountain ranges, providing confidence in the model’s estimation of western U.S. seasonal snowfall and snowpack. The future climate simulation forced with warmer and moister perturbed boundary conditions enhances annual and winter-spring-fall seasonal precipitation over most of the contiguous United States (CONUS), but suppresses summertime precipitation in the central U.S. The WRF-downscaled climate change simulations provide a high-resolution dataset (i.e., High-Resolution CONUS downscaling, HRCONUS) to the community for studying one possible scenario of regional climate changes and impacts. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53150
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research, P. O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, United States; State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY, United States; University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Liu C.,Ikeda K.,Rasmussen R.,et al. Continental-scale convection-permitting modeling of the current and future climate of North America[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(2017-01-02)