DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3333-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84983732534
论文题名: Impact of accelerated future global mean sea level rise on hypoxia in the Baltic Sea
作者: Meier H.E.M. ; Höglund A. ; Eilola K. ; Almroth-Rosell E.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 163
结束页码: 172
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Baltic Sea
; Climate change
; Coastal seas
; Global mean sea level rise
; Hypoxia
; Marine biogeochemical cycles
; Numerical modeling
英文摘要: Expanding hypoxia is today a major threat for many coastal seas around the world and disentangling its drivers is a large challenge for interdisciplinary research. Using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model we estimate the impact of past and accelerated future global mean sea level rise (GSLR) upon water exchange and oxygen conditions in a semi-enclosed, shallow sea. As a study site, the Baltic Sea was chosen that suffers today from eutrophication and from dead bottom zones due to (1) excessive nutrient loads from land, (2) limited water exchange with the world ocean and (3) perhaps other drivers like global warming. We show from model simulations for the period 1850–2008 that the impacts of past GSLR on the marine ecosystem were relatively small. If we assume for the end of the twenty-first century a GSLR of +0.5 m relative to today’s mean sea level, the impact on the marine ecosystem may still be small. Such a GSLR corresponds approximately to the projected ensemble-mean value reported by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However, we conclude that GSLR should be considered in future high-end projections (>+1 m) for the Baltic Sea and other coastal seas with similar hydrographical conditions as in the Baltic because GSLR may lead to reinforced saltwater inflows causing higher salinity and increased vertical stratification compared to present-day conditions. Contrary to intuition, reinforced ventilation of the deep water does not lead to overall improved oxygen conditions but causes instead expanded dead bottom areas accompanied with increased internal phosphorus loads from the sediments and increased risk for cyanobacteria blooms. © 2016, The Author(s). 资助项目: FI, Styrelsen for Forskning og Innovation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53164
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, Germany; Department of Research and Development, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Meier H.E.M.,Höglund A.,Eilola K.,et al. Impact of accelerated future global mean sea level rise on hypoxia in the Baltic Sea[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(2017-01-02)