DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3320-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84983447391
论文题名: Sampling variability and the changing ENSO–monsoon relationship
作者: Cash B.A. ; Barimalala R. ; Kinter J.L. ; III ; Altshuler E.L. ; Fennessy M.J. ; Manganello J.V. ; Molteni F. ; Towers P. ; Vitart F.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 4071
结束页码: 4079
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Correlation
; ENSO
; Monsoon
; Sampling
英文摘要: The impact of sampling variability on the correlation between all-India rainfall (AIR) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is investigated in a large ensemble of seasonal climate simulations made using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Ensemble Prediction System at T319 (64 km). The analyzed runs consist of 51 ensemble members initialized each May 1 for the period 1980–2011 and integrated for 7 months. 10,000 pairs of 32-year timeseries of June–September (JJAS) mean AIR and NINO3 indices are created from this database by randomly drawing one of the 51 ensemble members for each year. The correlation between each pair of AIR and NINO3 series is then calculated, generating a distribution of AIR–NINO3 correlation values. The model is reinitialized with observations each May 1 and thus all members are drawn from the same background state by construction and any differences in correlation are attributable to sampling variability. The spread in the calculated correlation values and the differences between 32-year segments are sufficient to explain the observed variations in AIR–NINO3 correlation since the beginning of the 1900s, including the sharp decrease in correlation strength since the late 1970s. Sampling variability thus represents a strong null hypothesis for the observed changes and one that cannot be rejected at the 95 % level based on our simulations. © 2016, The Author(s). 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53204
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: George Mason University/Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA, United States; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, England, United Kingdom; Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
Recommended Citation:
Cash B.A.,Barimalala R.,Kinter J.L.,et al. Sampling variability and the changing ENSO–monsoon relationship[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-11-12)