globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3307-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84983409236
论文题名:
Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability
作者: Hall R.J.; Jones J.M.; Hanna E.; Scaife A.A.; Erdélyi R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期:2017-11-12
起始页码: 3869
结束页码: 3887
语种: 英语
英文关键词: North Atlantic ; Polar front jet ; Predictability ; Predictors
英文摘要: The variability of the North Atlantic polar front jet stream is crucial in determining summer weather around the North Atlantic basin. Recent extreme summers in western Europe and North America have highlighted the need for greater understanding of this variability, in order to aid seasonal forecasting and mitigate societal, environmental and economic impacts. Here we find that simple linear regression and composite models based on a few predictable factors are able to explain up to 35 % of summertime jet stream speed and latitude variability from 1955 onwards. Sea surface temperature forcings impact predominantly on jet speed, whereas solar and cryospheric forcings appear to influence jet latitude. The cryospheric associations come from the previous autumn, suggesting the survival of an ice-induced signal through the winter season, whereas solar influences lead jet variability by a few years. Regression models covering the earlier part of the twentieth century are much less effective, presumably due to decreased availability of data, and increased uncertainty in observational reanalyses. Wavelet coherence analysis identifies that associations fluctuate over the study period but it is not clear whether this is just internal variability or genuine non-stationarity. Finally we identify areas for future research. © 2016, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53210
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Winter Street, Sheffield, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Centre, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom; Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory (DHO), Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS), P.O.Box 30, Debrecen, Hungary

Recommended Citation:
Hall R.J.,Jones J.M.,Hanna E.,et al. Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-11-12)
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