DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3239-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84976273794
论文题名: Investigation of the 2013 Alberta flood from weather and climate perspectives
作者: Teufel B. ; Diro G.T. ; Whan K. ; Milrad S.M. ; Jeong D.I. ; Ganji A. ; Huziy O. ; Winger K. ; Gyakum J.R. ; de Elia R. ; Zwiers F.W. ; Sushama L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2881
结束页码: 2899
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 2013 Alberta flood
; Climate change
; Event attribution
; Hydrology
; Land-atmosphere
; Orographic forcing
英文摘要: During 19–21 June 2013 a heavy precipitation event affected southern Alberta and adjoining regions, leading to severe flood damage in numerous communities and resulting in the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. This flood was caused by a combination of meteorological and hydrological factors, which are investigated from weather and climate perspectives with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model. Results show that the contribution of orographic ascent to precipitation was important, exceeding 30 % over the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. Another contributing factor was evapotranspiration from the land surface, which is found to have acted as an important moisture source and was likely enhanced by antecedent rainfall that increased soil moisture over the northern Great Plains. Event attribution analysis suggests that human induced greenhouse gas increases may also have contributed by causing evapotranspiration rates to be higher than they would have been under pre-industrial conditions. Frozen and snow-covered soils at high elevations are likely to have played an important role in generating record streamflows. Results point to a doubling of surface runoff due to the frozen conditions, while 25 % of the modelled runoff originated from snowmelt. The estimated return time of the 3-day precipitation event exceeds 50 years over a large region, and an increase in the occurrence of similar extreme precipitation events is projected by the end of the 21st century. Event attribution analysis suggests that greenhouse gas increases may have increased 1-day and 3-day return levels of May–June precipitation with respect to pre-industrial climate conditions. However, no anthropogenic influence can be detected for 1-day and 3-day surface runoff, as increases in extreme precipitation in the present-day climate are offset by decreased snow cover and lower frozen water content in soils during the May–June transition months, compared to pre-industrial climate. © 2016, The Author(s). 资助项目: NSERC, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53234
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Centre ESCER, University of Quebec at Montreal, Case postale 8888, succursale Centre-Ville, Montreal, QC, Canada; University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada; Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL, United States; McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; Ouranos Consortium, Montreal, QC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Teufel B.,Diro G.T.,Whan K.,et al. Investigation of the 2013 Alberta flood from weather and climate perspectives[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-09-10)