DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3267-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84979994172
论文题名: Skill and predictability in multimodel ensemble forecasts for Northern Hemisphere regions with dominant winter precipitation
作者: Ehsan M.A. ; Tippett M.K. ; Almazroui M. ; Ismail M. ; Yousef A. ; Kucharski F. ; Omar M. ; Hussein M. ; Alkhalaf A.A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 3309
结束页码: 3324
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ECMWF-SYS4
; NMME
; Predictability
; RPSS
英文摘要: Northern Hemisphere winter precipitation reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast System-4 and six of the models in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble are evaluated, focusing on two regions (Region-A: 20°N–45°N, 10°E–65°E and Region-B: 20°N–55°N, 205°E–255°E) where winter precipitation is a dominant fraction of the annual total and where precipitation from mid-latitude storms is important. Predictability and skill (deterministic and probabilistic) are assessed for 1983–2013 by the multimodel composite (MME) of seven prediction models. The MME climatological mean and variability over the two regions is comparable to observation with some regional differences. The statistically significant decreasing trend observed in Region-B precipitation is captured well by the MME and most of the individual models. El Niño Southern Oscillation is a source of forecast skill, and the correlation coefficient between the Niño3.4 index and precipitation over region A and B is 0.46 and 0.35, statistically significant at the 95 % level. The MME reforecasts weakly reproduce the observed teleconnection. Signal, noise and signal to noise ratio analysis show that the signal variance over two regions is very small as compared to noise variance which tends to reduce the prediction skill. The MME ranked probability skill score is higher than that of individual models, showing the advantage of a multimodel ensemble. Observed Region-A rainfall anomalies are strongly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, but none of the models reproduce this relation, which may explain the low skill over Region-A. The superior quality of multimodel ensemble compared with individual models is mainly due to larger ensemble size. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53252
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research (CECCR)/Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, P.O. Box: 80208, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Earth System Physics Section, International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Ehsan M.A.,Tippett M.K.,Almazroui M.,et al. Skill and predictability in multimodel ensemble forecasts for Northern Hemisphere regions with dominant winter precipitation[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-09-10)