globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3200-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85016296821
论文题名:
Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US
作者: Rupp D.E.; Li S.; Mote P.W.; Shell K.M.; Massey N.; Sparrow S.N.; Wallom D.C.H.; Allen M.R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期:2017-07-08
起始页码: 2191
结束页码: 2213
语种: 英语
英文关键词: RCP 4.5 ; Regional climate modeling ; Seasonal temperature projections ; Western US
英文摘要: Changes in near surface air temperature (ΔT) in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing are expected to show spatial heterogeneity because energy and moisture fluxes are modulated by features of the landscape that are also heterogeneous at these spatial scales. Detecting statistically meaningful heterogeneity requires a combination of high spatial resolution and a large number of simulations. To investigate spatial variability of projected ΔT, we generated regional, high-resolution (25-km horizontal), large ensemble (100 members per year), climate simulations of western United States (US) for the periods 1985–2014 and 2030–2059, the latter with atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. Using the large ensemble, 95 % confidence interval sizes for grid-cell-scale temperature responses were on the order of 0.1 °C, compared to 1 °C from a single ensemble member only. In both winter and spring, the snow-albedo feedback statistically explains roughly half of the spatial variability in ΔT. Simulated decreases in albedo exceed 0.1 in places, with rates of change in T per 0.1 decrease in albedo ranging from 0.3 to 1.4 °C. In summer, ΔT pattern in the northwest US is correlated with the pattern of decreasing precipitation. In all seasons, changing lapse rates in the low-to-middle troposphere may account for up to 0.2 °C differences in warming across the western US. Near the coast, a major control of spatial variation is the differential warming between sea and land. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: NIFA, National Institute of Food and Agriculture ; NIFA, National Institute of Food and Agriculture
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53266
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States; College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States; Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Rupp D.E.,Li S.,Mote P.W.,et al. Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-07-08)
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