DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3235-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84979225508
论文题名: Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study
作者: Mitsui T. ; Crucifix M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2729
结束页码: 2749
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Abrupt millennial-scale climate changes
; Dansgaard–Oeschger events
; Global ice volume change
; Orbital insolation forcing
; Statistical modelling
英文摘要: The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the influence of external forcings on DO events is investigated with statistical modelling. We assume two types of simple stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method with the NGRIP Ca 2 + record. The stochastic oscillator model with at least the ice volume forcing reproduces well the sample autocorrelation function of the record and the frequency changes of warming transitions in the last glacial period across MISs 2, 3, and 4. The model performance is improved with the additional insolation forcing. The BIC scores also suggest that the ice volume forcing is relatively more important than the insolation forcing, though the strength of evidence depends on the model assumption. Finally, we simulate the average number of warming transitions in the past four glacial periods, assuming the model can be extended beyond the last glacial, and compare the result with an Iberian margin sea-surface temperature (SST) record (Martrat et al. in Science 317(5837): 502–507, 2007). The simulation result supports the previous observation that abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) are less frequent than in the last glacial (MISs 2–4). On the other hand, it suggests that the number of abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in older glacial periods (MISs 6, 8, and 10) might be larger than inferred from the SST record. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53268
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Belgian National Fund of Scientific Research, Rue d’Egmont, 5, Brussels, Belgium
Recommended Citation:
Mitsui T.,Crucifix M.. Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-07-08)