DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3216-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84974808220
论文题名: Boreal winter Arctic Oscillation as an indicator of summer SST anomalies over the western tropical Indian Ocean
作者: Gong D.-Y. ; Guo D. ; Gao Y. ; Yang J. ; Mao R. ; Qu J. ; Gao M. ; Li S. ; Kim S.-J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2471
结束页码: 2488
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Prediction model
; Summer SST
; Tropical Indian Ocean
; Winter Arctic Oscillation
英文摘要: The inter-annual relationship between the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) and summer sea surface temperature (SST) over the western tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) for the period from 1979 to 2015 is investigated. The results show that the January–February–March AO is significantly correlated with the June–July–August SST and SST tendency. When both El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) variance are excluded, the winter AO is significantly correlated with the regional mean SST of the western TIO (40∘–60 ∘E and 10 ∘S–10 ∘N), r= 0.71. The multi-month SST tendency, i.e., the SST difference of June–July–August minus April–May, is correlated with the winter AO at r= 0.75. Composite analysis indicates similar warming over the western TIO. Two statistical models are established to predict the subsequent summer’s SST and SST tendency. The models use the winter AO, the winter ENSO and the autumn-winter IOD indexes as predictors and explain 65 and 62 % of the variance of the subsequent summer’s SST and SST tendency, respectively. Investigation of the regional air–sea fluxes and oceanic dynamics reveals that the net surface heat flux cannot account for the warming, whereas the oceanic Rossby wave plays a predominant role. During positive AO winters, the enhanced Arabian High causes stronger northern winds in the northern Indian Ocean and leads to anomalous cross-equatorial air-flow. The Ekman pumping in association with the anomalous wind stress curl in the central TIO generates a significantly deeper thermocline and above-normal sea surface height at 60∘–75∘E and 5∘–10 ∘S. The winter AO-forced Rossby wave propagates westward and arrives at the western coast in summer, resulting in the significant SST increase. Forced by the observed winter AO-related wind stress anomalies over the Indian Ocean, the ocean model reasonably reproduces the Rossby wave as well as the resulting surface ocean warming over the western TIO in the subsequent summer. Observational analysis and numerical experiments suggest the importance of the oceanic dynamics in connecting the winter AO and summer SST anomalies. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53276
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, IAP/CAS, Beijing, China; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Division of Polar Climate Change, Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Gong D.-Y.,Guo D.,Gao Y.,et al. Boreal winter Arctic Oscillation as an indicator of summer SST anomalies over the western tropical Indian Ocean[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-07-08)