globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3230-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84975282821
论文题名:
Spatial patterns of recent Antarctic surface temperature trends and the importance of natural variability: lessons from multiple reconstructions and the CMIP5 models
作者: Smith K.L.; Polvani L.M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期:2017-07-08
起始页码: 2653
结束页码: 2670
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Antarctic climate change ; Climate variability ; Coupled climate models
英文摘要: The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a cooling of East Antarctica in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East–West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature trends over two distinct time periods (1960–2005 and 1979–2005), and with those simulated by 40 models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find that the observed East–West asymmetry differs substantially between the two periods and, furthermore, that it is completely absent from the forced response seen in the CMIP5 multi-model mean, from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging. We also examine the relationship between the Southern Annular mode (SAM) and Antarctic temperature trends, in both models and reanalyses, and again conclude that there is little evidence of anthropogenic SAM-induced driving of the recent temperature trends. These results offer new, compelling evidence pointing to natural climate variability as a key contributor to the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: NSERC, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada ; OPP, Office of Polar Programs
Citation statistics:
被引频次[WOS]:37   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53291
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Division of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States

Recommended Citation:
Smith K.L.,Polvani L.M.. Spatial patterns of recent Antarctic surface temperature trends and the importance of natural variability: lessons from multiple reconstructions and the CMIP5 models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-07-08)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Smith K.L.]'s Articles
[Polvani L.M.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Smith K.L.]'s Articles
[Polvani L.M.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Smith K.L.]‘s Articles
[Polvani L.M.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.