DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3222-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84978068983
论文题名: How predictable is the winter extremely cold days over temperate East Asia?
作者: Luo X. ; Wang B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2557
结束页码: 2568
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic Ocean temperature anomalies
; Climate predictability
; East Asia winter monsoon (EAWM)
; El Niño/La Niña
; Prediction of extremely cold events
英文摘要: Skillful seasonal prediction of the number of extremely cold day (NECD) has considerable benefits for climate risk management and economic planning. Yet, predictability of NECD associated with East Asia winter monsoon remains largely unexplored. The present work estimates the NECD predictability in temperate East Asia (TEA, 30°–50°N, 110°–140°E) where the current dynamical models exhibit limited prediction skill. We show that about 50 % of the total variance of the NECD in TEA region is likely predictable, which is estimated by using a physics-based empirical (P-E) model with three consequential autumn predictors, i.e., developing El Niño/La Niña, Eurasian Arctic Ocean temperature anomalies, and geopotential height anomalies over northern and eastern Asia. We find that the barotropic geopotential height anomaly over Asia can persist from autumn to winter, thereby serving as a predictor for winter NECD. Further analysis reveals that the sources of the NECD predictability and the physical basis for prediction of NECD are essentially the same as those for prediction of winter mean temperature over the same region. This finding implies that forecasting seasonal mean temperature can provide useful information for prediction of extreme cold events. Interpretation of the lead–lag linkages between the three predictors and the predictand is provided for stimulating further studies. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53300
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Atmosphere-Ocean Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Recommended Citation:
Luo X.,Wang B.. How predictable is the winter extremely cold days over temperate East Asia?[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-07-08)