DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3187-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84973103245
论文题名: Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the coupled models
作者: Liu H. ; Tang Y. ; Chen D. ; Lian T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 2005
结束页码: 2024
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Ensemble prediction
; IOD
; Predictability
英文摘要: In this study, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) predictability, measured by the Indian Dipole Mode Index (DMI), is comprehensively examined at the seasonal time scale, including its actual prediction skill and potential predictability, using the ENSEMBLES multiple model ensembles and the recently developed information-based theoretical framework of predictability. It was found that all model predictions have useful skill, which is normally defined by the anomaly correlation coefficient larger than 0.5, only at around 2–3 month leads. This is mainly because there are more false alarms in predictions as leading time increases. The DMI predictability has significant seasonal variation, and the predictions whose target seasons are boreal summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) are more reliable than that for other seasons. All of models fail to predict the IOD onset before May and suffer from the winter (DJF) predictability barrier. The potential predictability study indicates that, with the model development and initialization improvement, the prediction of IOD onset is likely to be improved but the winter barrier cannot be overcome. The IOD predictability also has decadal variation, with a high skill during the 1960s and the early 1990s, and a low skill during the early 1970s and early 1980s, which is very consistent with the potential predictability. The main factors controlling the IOD predictability, including its seasonal and decadal variations, are also analyzed in this study. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NSERC, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53327
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Hangzhou, China; Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Liu H.,Tang Y.,Chen D.,et al. Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the coupled models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-05-06)