DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3148-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84970990466
论文题名: The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models
作者: Whan K. ; Zwiers F.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1401
结束页码: 1411
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO
; Extreme precipitation
; GEV
; NAO
英文摘要: The relationship between winter precipitation in North America and indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is evaluated using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions with the indices as covariates. Both covariates have a statistically significant influence on precipitation that is well simulated by two regional climate models (RCMs), CanRCM4 and CRCM5. The observed influence of the NAO on extreme precipitation is largest in eastern North America, with the likelihood of a negative phase extreme rainfall event decreased in the north and increased in the south under the positive phase of the NAO. This pattern is generally well simulated by the RCMs although there are some differences in the extent of influence, particularly south of the Great Lakes. A La Niña-magnitude extreme event is more likely to occur under El Niño conditions in California and the southern United States, and less likely in most of Canada and a region south of the Great Lakes. This broad pattern is also simulated well by the RCMs but they do not capture the increased likelihood in California. In some places the extreme precipitation response in the RCMs to external forcing from a covariate is of the opposite sign, despite use of the same lateral boundary conditions and dynamical core. This demonstrates the importance of model physics for teleconnections to extreme precipitation. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53336
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, University House 1, Stn CSC, PO Box 1700, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Whan K.,Zwiers F.. The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-05-06)