globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3120-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84963652861
论文题名:
Variations in large-scale tropical cyclone genesis factors over the western North Pacific in the PMIP3 last millennium simulations
作者: Yan Q.; Wei T.; Zhang Z.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期:2017-03-04
起始页码: 957
结束页码: 970
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Investigation of past tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP) is potentially helpful to enable better understanding of future TC behaviors. In this study, we examine variations in large-scale environmental factors important to TC genesis in the last millennium simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3). The results show that potential intensity, a theoretical prediction of the maximum TC intensity, is increased relative to the last millennium in the north part of the WNP in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 950–1200 AD) while it is decreased in the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1600–1850 AD). Vertical wind shear that generally inhibits TC genesis is enhanced (reduced) to the south of 20°N and is reduced (enhanced) to the north in the MCA (LIA). Relative humidity (at 600 hPa) that measures the mid-tropospheric moisture content broadly shows an increase (decrease) in the MCA (LIA). A genesis potential index indicates that conditions are generally favorable (unfavorable) for TC formation in the WNP in the MCA (LIA), especially in the northern part. Taking changes in steering flows into account, there may be an increasing (decreasing) favorability for storm strikes in East Asia in the MCA (LIA). The estimated TC activity is consistent with the geological proxies in Japan, but contradicts with the typhoon records in southern China and Taiwan. This model-data discrepancy is attributed to the limitations in both simulations and reconstructions. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China ; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China ; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53367
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 40 Huayanli, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China

Recommended Citation:
Yan Q.,Wei T.,Zhang Z.. Variations in large-scale tropical cyclone genesis factors over the western North Pacific in the PMIP3 last millennium simulations[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-03-04)
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