DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3075-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84963783293
论文题名: Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation
作者: Shaffrey L.C. ; Hodson D. ; Robson J. ; Stevens D.P. ; Hawkins E. ; Polo I. ; Stevens I. ; Sutton R.T. ; Lister G. ; Iwi A. ; Smith D. ; Stephens A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 297
结束页码: 311
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
; Decadal prediction
; High-resolution climate modelling
英文摘要: This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to 1. 25 ∘× 0. 83 ∘ in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and 1 / 3 ∘× 1 / 3 ∘ globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,.., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean, the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. © 2016, The Author(s). 资助项目: FP7, Seventh Framework Programme
; DECC, Department of Energy and Climate Change
; NERC, Natural Environment Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53386
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Mathematics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; British Atmospheric Data Centre, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Shaffrey L.C.,Hodson D.,Robson J.,et al. Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-01-02)