DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3063-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84960470149
论文题名: Dynamical–statistical seasonal prediction for western North Pacific typhoons based on APCC multi-models
作者: Kim O.-Y. ; Kim H.-M. ; Lee M.-I. ; Min Y.-M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 71
结束页码: 88
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Deterministic and probabilistic forecasts
; Multimodel ensemble
; Seasonal tropical cyclones
; Western North Pacific
英文摘要: This study aims at predicting the seasonal number of typhoons (TY) over the western North Pacific with an Asia-Pacific Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME)-based dynamical–statistical hybrid model. The hybrid model uses the statistical relationship between the number of TY during the typhoon season (July–October) and the large-scale key predictors forecasted by APCC MME for the same season. The cross validation result from the MME hybrid model demonstrates high prediction skill, with a correlation of 0.67 between the hindcasts and observation for 1982–2008. The cross validation from the hybrid model with individual models participating in MME indicates that there is no single model which consistently outperforms the other models in predicting typhoon number. Although the forecast skill of MME is not always the highest compared to that of each individual model, the skill of MME presents rather higher averaged correlations and small variance of correlations. Given large set of ensemble members from multi-models, a relative operating characteristic score reveals an 82 % (above-) and 78 % (below-normal) improvement for the probabilistic prediction of the number of TY. It implies that there is 82 % (78 %) probability that the forecasts can successfully discriminate between above normal (below-normal) from other years. The forecast skill of the hybrid model for the past 7 years (2002–2008) is more skillful than the forecast from the Tropical Storm Risk consortium. Using large set of ensemble members from multi-models, the APCC MME could provide useful deterministic and probabilistic seasonal typhoon forecasts to the end-users in particular, the residents of tropical cyclone-prone areas in the Asia-Pacific region. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53398
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: APEC Climate Center (APCC), 12, Centum 7-ro, Haeundae-gu, Busan, South Korea; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook UniversityNY, United States; School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, UNIST, Ulsan, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Kim O.-Y.,Kim H.-M.,Lee M.-I.,et al. Dynamical–statistical seasonal prediction for western North Pacific typhoons based on APCC multi-models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-01-02)