globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3078-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961212798
论文题名:
On the robustness of near term climate predictability regarding initial state uncertainties
作者: Germe A.; Sévellec F.; Mignot J.; Swingedouw D.; Nguyen S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期:2017-01-02
起始页码: 353
结束页码: 366
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate predictability ; Ensemble generation ; Ensemble spread ; Initial condition perturbation ; Prediction reliability ; Uncertainties
英文摘要: A set of four ensemble simulations has been designed to assess the relative importance of atmospheric, oceanic, and deep ocean initial state uncertainties, as represented by spatial white noise perturbations, on seasonal to decadal prediction skills in a perfect model framework. It is found that a perturbation mimicking random oceanic uncertainties have the same impact as an atmospheric-only perturbation on the future evolution of the ensemble after the first 3 months, even if they are initially only located in the deep ocean. This is due to the fast (1 month) perturbation of the atmospheric component regardless of the initial ensemble generation strategy. The divergence of the ensemble upper-ocean characteristics is then mainly induced by ocean–atmosphere interactions. While the seasonally varying mixed layer depth allows the penetration of the different signals in the thermocline in the mid-high latitudes, the rapid adjustment of the thermocline to wind anomalies followed by Kelvin and Rossby waves adjustment dominates the growth of the ensemble spread in the tropics. These mechanisms result in similar ensemble distribution characteristics for the four ensembles design strategy at the interannual timescale. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: NERC, Natural Environment Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53404
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作者单位: LOCEAN Laboratory-IPSL, Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, 4 place Jussieu, Paris, France; Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Climate and Environmental Physics and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC - OASU - Université de Bordeaux, Allée Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire, Pessac, France

Recommended Citation:
Germe A.,Sévellec F.,Mignot J.,et al. On the robustness of near term climate predictability regarding initial state uncertainties[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,48(2017-01-02)
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