DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3042-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84975748736
论文题名: Return times of hot and cold days via recurrences and extreme value theory
作者: Faranda D. ; Alvarez-Castro M.C. ; Yiou P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 12 起始页码: 3803
结束页码: 3815
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate
; Dynamical systems
; Extreme events
; Recurrences
; Temperature
英文摘要: In this paper we introduce a model evaluation and comparison metric based on the methodology introduced in Faranda et al. (Geophys Res Lett 40(21):5782–5786, 2013) to assess biases and their potential origins in a historical model simulation against long-term reanalysis. The metric is constructed by exploiting recent results of dynamical systems theory linking rare recurrences to the classical statistical theories of extreme events for time series. We compute rare recurrences for 100 years daily mean temperatures data obtained in a model with historical greenhouse forcing (the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, IPSL-CM5 model) and compare them with the same quantities obtained from two datasets of reanalysis (twentieth Century Reanalysis and ERA 20C). The period chosen for the comparison is 1900–2000 and the focus is on the European region. We show that with respect to the traditional approaches, the recurrence technique is sensitive to the change in the size of the selection window of extremes due to the conditions imposed by the dynamics. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: ERC, European Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53424
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Recommended Citation:
Faranda D.,Alvarez-Castro M.C.,Yiou P.. Return times of hot and cold days via recurrences and extreme value theory[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(12)