DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2961-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84953399985
论文题名: Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region
作者: Gibson P.B. ; Uotila P. ; Perkins-Kirkpatrick S.E. ; Alexander L.V. ; Pitman A.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2235
结束页码: 2251
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Frequency
; Persistence
; Self-organizing maps
; Transitions
; Weather typing
英文摘要: Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53528
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Gibson P.B.,Uotila P.,Perkins-Kirkpatrick S.E.,et al. Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-07-08)