| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-015-2911-8
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84947727125
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| 论文题名: | Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets |
| 作者: | Chang E.K.M.; Yau A.M.W.
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| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
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| ISSN: | 9307575
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 47, 期:2017-05-06 | | 起始页码: | 1435
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| 结束页码: | 1454
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Extratropical cyclones
; Northern Hemisphere
; Storm tracks
; Trend
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| 英文摘要: | In this study, a comprehensive comparison of Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trend since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets and rawinsonde observations has been conducted. In addition, trends in terms of variance and cyclone track statistics have been compared. Previous studies, based largely on the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NNR), have suggested that both the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks have significantly intensified between the 1950s and 1990s. Comparison with trends derived from rawinsonde observations suggest that the trends derived from NNR are significantly biased high, while those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year Reanalysis and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis are much less biased but still too high. Those from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are most consistent with observations but may exhibit slight biases of opposite signs. Between 1959 and 2010, Pacific storm track activity has likely increased by 10 % or more, while Atlantic storm track activity has likely increased by <10 %. Our analysis suggests that trends in Pacific and Atlantic basin wide storm track activity prior to the 1950s derived from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are unlikely to be reliable due to changes in density of surface observations. Nevertheless, these datasets may provide useful information on interannual variability, especially over the Atlantic. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53554
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: | School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Chang E.K.M.,Yau A.M.W.. Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-05-06)
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