DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2877-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945157437
论文题名: Changes in the distribution of cold waves in France in the middle and end of the 21st century with IPSL-CM5 and CNRM-CM5 models
作者: Parey S. ; Hoang T.T.H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 879
结束页码: 893
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Cold waves
; Stochastic modelling
英文摘要: In this paper, a stochastic model is used to simulate daily minimum temperature time series coming from observations and two CMIP5 climate models (IPSL-CM5A-MR and CNRM-CM5) in order to analyze the changes in cold wave number and proportions under future climate conditions. The stochastic model allows computing 100 temperature time series for each different source (observation or climate model), and for 22 locations in France, which enables inferring the statistical significance of the changes. Two future time periods, near (around 2010–2060) and far future (around 2050–2100), and two RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are considered, while 3 different thresholds are used to identify cold waves: 0 °C and the 10th and 5th percentiles of observed wintertime (December–January–February) daily minimum temperature distribution. The results show that both models project a significantly lower number of cold waves in the future, all durations considered, but the changes mainly concern the proportion of the longest cold waves (10 days and more). The decreases are higher with IPSL-CM5A-MR than with CNRM-CM5. The main driver of this change is the decreasing frequency of the observation based thresholds in the future, which is higher for IPSL-CM5-MR model because the impact of a higher mean is enhanced by a decrease in the variance. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53606
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: EDF/R&D 6, quai Watier, Chatou Cedex, France
Recommended Citation:
Parey S.,Hoang T.T.H.. Changes in the distribution of cold waves in France in the middle and end of the 21st century with IPSL-CM5 and CNRM-CM5 models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-03-04)