DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2882-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945309266
论文题名: Spatial stabilization and intensification of moistening and drying rate patterns under future climate change
作者: Chavaillaz Y. ; Joussaume S. ; Bony S. ; Braconnot P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 951
结束页码: 965
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; CMIP5 simulations
; Persistent rate patterns
; Rate of precipitation change
; Spatial stabilization
英文摘要: Precipitation projections are usually presented as the change in precipitation between a fixed current baseline and a particular time in the future. However, upcoming generations will be affected in a way probably more related to the moving trend in precipitation patterns, i.e. to the rate and the persistence of regional precipitation changes from one generation to the next, than to changes relative to a fixed current baseline. In this perspective, we propose an alternative characterization of the future precipitation changes predicted by general circulation models, focusing on the precipitation difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. We show that in a business-as-usual emission pathway, the moistening and drying rates increase by 30–40 %, both over land and ocean. As we move further over the twenty-first century, more regions exhibit a significant rate of precipitation change, while the patterns become geographically stationary and the trends persistent. The stabilization of the geographical rate patterns that occurs despite the acceleration of global warming can be physically explained: it results from the increasing contribution of thermodynamic processes compared to dynamic processes in the control of precipitation change. We show that such an evolution is already noticeable over the last decades, and that it could be reversed if strong mitigation policies were quickly implemented. The combination of intensification and increasing persistence of precipitation rate patterns may affect the way human societies and natural ecosystems adapt to climate change, especially in the Mediterranean basin, in Central America, in South Asia and in the Arctic. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53615
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE-IPSL), CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD-IPSL), CNRS/Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 4, Place Jussieu, Paris, France
Recommended Citation:
Chavaillaz Y.,Joussaume S.,Bony S.,et al. Spatial stabilization and intensification of moistening and drying rate patterns under future climate change[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-03-04)