DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2902-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84946763434
论文题名: Modelled impact of global warming on ENSO-driven precipitation changes in the tropical Pacific
作者: Chung C.T.Y. ; Power S.B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 1303
结束页码: 1323
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate variability
; El-Niño Southern Oscillation
; Global warming
英文摘要: The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary source of interannual climate variability over the tropical Pacific. Here we use an ensemble of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments to estimate the impact of global warming on ENSO-driven precipitation anomalies over the tropical Pacific. The AGCM is forced using observed time-varying sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1951 to 2010, with and without an added warming pattern (the CMIP3 multi-model mean change in SSTs projected for the last 20 years of the twenty-first century under the SRES A2 scenario). In the tropical Pacific, the AGCM’s El Niño rainfall response to the applied warming pattern agrees with rainfall responses in coupled models. With the warming pattern, rainfall is generally greater along the equatorial Pacific throughout the ENSO cycle. The Intertropical Convergence Zone dries over the eastern Pacific and the South Pacific Convergence Zone exhibits increased rainfall along its south-eastern flank and drying along its north-western flank. The magnitude and spatial structure of the changes differ between El Niño and La Niña events, and also depend on the magnitude of the events. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis shows that the AGCM does not project any significant increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events (or ‘single zonal convergence zone’ events) in this framework, although the magnitude of such events is increased by approximately 25 %. The modelled zonal wind anomalies show clear spatial and temporal differences between strong and weak El Niño and La Niña events. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53619
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Chung C.T.Y.,Power S.B.. Modelled impact of global warming on ENSO-driven precipitation changes in the tropical Pacific[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-03-04)