DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2831-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84949817781
论文题名: Assessment of climate change impacts on watershed in cold-arid region: an integrated multi-GCM-based stochastic weather generator and stepwise cluster analysis method
作者: Zhuang X.W. ; Li Y.P. ; Huang G.H. ; Liu J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 191
结束页码: 209
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Cold-arid
; Multi-GCM
; Stepwise cluster analysis
; Stochastic weather generator
; Watershed
英文摘要: An integrated multi-GCM-based stochastic weather generator and stepwise cluster analysis (MGCM-SWG–SCA) method is developed, through incorporating multiple global climate models (MGCM), stochastic weather generator (SWG), and stepwise-clustered hydrological model (SCHM) within a general framework. MGCM-SWG–SCA can investigate uncertainties of projected climate changes as well as create watershed-scale climate projections from large-scale variables. It can also assess climate change impacts on hydrological processes and capture nonlinear relationship between input variables and outputs in watershed systems. MGCM-SWG–SCA is then applied to the Kaidu watershed with cold-arid characteristics in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of northwest China, for demonstrating its efficiency. Results reveal that the variability of streamflow is mainly affected by (1) temperature change during spring, (2) precipitation change during winter, and (3) both temperature and precipitation changes in summer and autumn. Results also disclose that: (1) the projected minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation from MGCM change with seasons in different ways; (2) various climate change projections can reproduce the seasonal variability of watershed-scale climate series; (3) SCHM can simulate daily streamflow with a satisfactory degree, and a significant increasing trend of streamflow is indicated from future (2015–2035) to validation (2006–2011) periods; (4) the streamflow can vary under different climate change projections. The findings can be explained that, for the Kaidu watershed located in the cold-arid region, glacier melt is mainly related to temperature changes and precipitation changes can directly cause the variability of streamflow. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53632
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization, Sino-Canada Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China; Environmental Systems Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Zhuang X.W.,Li Y.P.,Huang G.H.,et al. Assessment of climate change impacts on watershed in cold-arid region: an integrated multi-GCM-based stochastic weather generator and stepwise cluster analysis method[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-01-02)