DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2711-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84933056741
论文题名: Interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the western North Pacific summer climate around the late 1970s and early 1990s
作者: Li C. ; Lu R. ; Dong B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2435
结束页码: 2448
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Air-sea interaction
; ENSEMBLES
; Interdecadal change
; Seasonal forecast
; Western north pacific
英文摘要: Identifying predictability and the corresponding sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate in the case of non-stationary teleconnections during recent decades benefits for further improvements of long-range prediction on the WNP and East Asian summers. In the past few decades, pronounced increases on the summer sea surface temperature (SST) and associated interannual variability are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific around the late 1970s and over the Maritime Continent and western-central Pacific around the early 1990s. These increases are associated with significant enhancements of the interannual variability for the lower-tropospheric wind over the WNP. In this study, we further assess interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the WNP summer anomalies, using May-start retrospective forecasts from the ENSEMBLES multi-model project in the period 1960-2005. It is found that prediction of the WNP summer anomalies exhibits an interdecadal shift with higher prediction skills since the late 1970s, particularly after the early 1990s. Improvements of the prediction skills for SSTs after the late 1970s are mainly found around tropical Indian Ocean and the WNP. The better prediction of the WNP after the late 1970s may arise mainly from the improvement of the SST prediction around the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The close teleconnections between the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and WNP summer variability work both in the model predictions and observations. After the early 1990s, on the other hand, the improvements are detected mainly around the South China Sea and Philippines for the lowertropospheric zonal wind and precipitation anomalies, associating with a better description of the SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent. A dipole SST pattern over the Maritime Continent and the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is closely related to the WNP summer anomalies after the early 1990s. This teleconnection mode is quite predictable, which is realistically reproduced by the models, presenting more predictable signals to the WNP summer climate after the early 1990s. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015. 资助项目: NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53668
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 9804, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Li C.,Lu R.,Dong B.. Interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the western North Pacific summer climate around the late 1970s and early 1990s[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-07-08)