DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2804-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84941353883
论文题名: Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods
作者: Antico A. ; Torres M.E. ; Diaz H.F.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 3785
结束页码: 3792
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate oscillations
; Empirical time-scale decomposition
; Extreme floods
; Paraná River
英文摘要: The present study provides the first complete examination of how different time scales contributed to generate the four largest observed floods of the Paraná River (1905, 1983, 1992 and 1998). This inspection is based on the results from a previous study where an empirical method was used to decompose a 1904–2010 Paraná flow record (monthly means) into several physically meaningful oscillations with distinctive time scales or periods (few months to decades), and a secular increasing trend. We show that all the oscillations largely contributed to the four extreme floods, except an 18-year cycle that did not contribute to the 1992 flood. Sporadic intense constructive interferences between interannual-to-interdecadal (3–85 years) cycles determined (i) the favorable conditions for extreme-flood occurrence, and (ii) notable differences among floods. Indeed, in 1983, the largest flood ever recorded resulted mainly from an exceptionally strong constructive interference between cycles of 3–5, 9, 18 and 31–85 years, which are related to El Niño events, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, and the Pacific Ocean, respectively. Contributions of the 31–85-year cycle to the two biggest floods (1983 and 1992) are larger than the contributions of the secular upward trend, suggesting the importance of this slow oscillation in flood formation processes. The implications of our results for understanding and predicting Paraná floods are discussed. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53709
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional de Litoral, Santa Fe, Santa Fe, Argentina; Laboratorio de Señales y Dinámicas no Lineales, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos, Oro Verde, Entre Ríos, Argentina; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Antico A.,Torres M.E.,Diaz H.F.. Contributions of different time scales to extreme Paraná floods[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-11-12)