DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2808-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940185061
论文题名: Mean state and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon simulation by NCEP CFSv2
作者: Shukla R.P. ; Huang B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 3845
结束页码: 3864
语种: 英语
英文关键词: EOF analysis
; Indian summer monsoon
; Interannual variability
; NCEP CFSv2
英文摘要: The capability of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is evaluated in the context of the global monsoon in the Indo-Pacific domain and its variability. Although the CFSv2 captures the ISM spatial structure qualitatively, it demonstrates a severe dry bias over the Indian subcontinent. The weaker model monsoon may be related to an excessive surface convergence over the equatorial Indian Ocean, which reduces the moisture transport toward the Indian subcontinent. The excessively low equatorial pressure is in turn a part of a tropical-wise bias with the largest errors in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific associated with the cold sea surface temperature bias and an overly strong inter-tropical convergence zone. In this sense, the model bias in the tropical Pacific influences those in the Indian Ocean-ISM region substantially. The leading mode of the June–September averaged CFSv2 rainfall anomalies covering the ISM and its adjacent oceanic regions is qualitatively similar to that of the observations, characterized by a spatial pattern of strong anomalies over either side of the Indian peninsula as well as center of opposite sign over Myanmar. However, the model fails to reproduce the northward expansion of rainfall anomalies from Myanmar, leading to opposite anomalies over northeast India and Himalayas region. A substantial amount of the anomalous fluctuation is attributed to the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although the model variability depends more strongly on ENSO. The active regional influences in the observations may contribute to its baroclinic vertical structure of the geopotential height anomalies in the ISM region, compared with the predominantly barotropic one in CFSv2. Model ENSO deficiencies also affects its ISM simulation significantly. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53714
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), 270 Research Hall, Mail Stop 6C5, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA, United States; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Shukla R.P.,Huang B.. Mean state and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon simulation by NCEP CFSv2[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-11-12)