DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2750-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940180949
论文题名: Robustness, uncertainties, and emergent constraints in the radiative responses of stratocumulus cloud regimes to future warming
作者: Tsushima Y. ; Ringer M.A. ; Koshiro T. ; Kawai H. ; Roehrig R. ; Cole J. ; Watanabe M. ; Yokohata T. ; Bodas-Salcedo A. ; Williams K.D. ; Webb M.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 3025
结束页码: 3039
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate model
; Cloud feedback
; Cloud radiative effect
; Liquid water path
; Stratocumulus
英文摘要: Future responses of cloud regimes are analyzed for five CMIP5 models forced with observed SSTs and subject to a patterned SST perturbation. Correlations between cloud properties in the control climate and changes in the warmer climate are investigated for each of a set of cloud regimes defined using a clustering methodology. The only significant (negative) correlation found is in the in-regime net cloud radiative effect for the stratocumulus regime. All models overestimate the in-regime albedo of the stratocumulus regime. Reasons for this bias and its relevance to the future response are investigated. A detailed evaluation of the models’ daily-mean contributions to the albedo from stratocumulus clouds with different cloud cover fractions reveals that all models systematically underestimate the relative occurrence of overcast cases but overestimate those of broken clouds. In the warmer climate the relative occurrence of overcast cases tends to decrease while that of broken clouds increases. This suggests a decrease in the climatological in-regime albedo with increasing temperature (a positive feedback); this is opposite to the feedback suggested by the analysis of the bulk in-regime albedo. Furthermore we find that the inter-model difference in the sign of the in-cloud albedo feedback is consistent with the difference in sign of the in-cloud liquid water path response, and there is a strong positive correlation between the in-regime liquid water path in the control climate and its response to warming. We therefore conclude that further breakdown of the in-regime properties into cloud cover and in-cloud properties is necessary to better understand the behavior of the stratocumulus regime. Since cloud water is a physical property and is independent of a model’s radiative assumptions, it could potentially provide a useful emergent constraint on cloud feedback. © 2015, © Crown Copyright as represented by the Met Office 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53732
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), JMA, Tsukuba, Japan; Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Toulouse, France; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Toronto, Canada; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI), University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Tsushima Y.,Ringer M.A.,Koshiro T.,et al. Robustness, uncertainties, and emergent constraints in the radiative responses of stratocumulus cloud regimes to future warming[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-09-10)