DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2918-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84949811384
论文题名: Potential for seasonal prediction of Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26 ∘ N
作者: Duchez A. ; Courtois P. ; Harris E. ; Josey S.A. ; Kanzow T. ; Marsh R. ; Smeed D.A. ; Hirschi J.J.-M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 3351
结束页码: 3370
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Air–sea heat flux
; Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
; RAPID array
; Sea surface temperature
; Seasonal potential predictability
英文摘要: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a critical role in the climate system and is responsible for much of the meridional heat transported by the ocean. In this paper, the potential of using AMOC observations from the 26∘N RAPID array to predict North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is investigated for the first time. Using spatial correlations and a composite method, the AMOC anomaly is used as a precursor of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). The results show that the AMOC leads a dipolar SSTA with maximum correlations between 2 and 5 months. The physical mechanism explaining the link between AMOC and SSTA is described as a seesaw mechanism where a strong AMOC anomaly increases the amount of heat advected north of 26∘N as well as the SSTA, and decreases the heat content and the SSTA south of this section. In order to further understand the origins of this SSTA dipole, the respective contributions of the heat advected by the AMOC versus the Ekman transport and air–sea fluxes have been assessed. We found that at a 5-month lag, the Ekman component mainly contributes to the southern part of the dipole and cumulative air–sea fluxes only explain a small fraction of the SSTA variability. Given that the southern part of the SSTA dipole encompasses the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes, our results therefore suggest the potential for AMOC observations from 26∘N to be used to complement existing seasonal hurricane forecasts in the Atlantic. © 2015, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53764
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, United Kingdom; Department Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; Ariel Re BDA Limited, 31 Victoria Street, Hamilton, Bermuda; Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany; Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Duchez A.,Courtois P.,Harris E.,et al. Potential for seasonal prediction of Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26 ∘ N[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-09-10)