DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2634-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957429641
论文题名: Long-term changes/trends in surface temperature and precipitation during the satellite era (1979–2012)
作者: Gu G. ; Adler R.F. ; Huffman G.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 1091
结束页码: 1105
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
; Global precipitation and temperature change/variability
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; The effect of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas related surface warming
英文摘要: During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 1998/1999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal-scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDO’s phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres, even though the PDO’s net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well. However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes/trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors: anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific, including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDO’s contributions. Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53829
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 4001, College Park, MD, United States; Code 612, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Gu G.,Adler R.F.,Huffman G.J.. Long-term changes/trends in surface temperature and precipitation during the satellite era (1979–2012)[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-03-04)