globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2648-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957435290
论文题名:
Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario
作者: Pascale S.; Lucarini V.; Feng X.; Porporato A.; ul Hasson S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期:2017-03-04
起始页码: 1331
结束页码: 1350
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5 models ; Drought index ; Monsoons ; Rainfall seasonality indicators ; Representative concentration pathways
英文摘要: In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions—southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia—and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to 1 month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America, South America. These trends are consistent with a shortening of the wet season associated with a more prolonged pre-monsoonal dry period. The extent of the global monsoon region, characterized by large DSI, is projected to remain substantially unaltered. Centroid analysis shows that most of CMIP5 projections suggest that the monsoonal annual rainfall distribution is expected to change from early to late in the course of the hydrological year by the end of the twenty-first century and particularly after year 2050. This trend is particularly evident over northern Africa, southern Africa and western Mexico, where more than 90% of the models project a delay of the rainfall centroid from a few days up to 2 weeks. Over the remaining monsoonal regions, there is little inter-model agreement in terms of centroid changes. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: DOE, European Research Council ; ERC, European Research Council ; NIFA, European Research Council ; NOAA, European Research Council ; USDA, European Research Council ; NSF, European Research Council ; NSF, European Research Council ; NSF, European Research Council ; NSF, European Research Council
Citation statistics:
被引频次[WOS]:67   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53832
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Klima Campus, Meteorologisches Institut, Grindelberg 5, Hamburg, Germany; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States; California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Pascale S.,Lucarini V.,Feng X.,et al. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-03-04)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Pascale S.]'s Articles
[Lucarini V.]'s Articles
[Feng X.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Pascale S.]'s Articles
[Lucarini V.]'s Articles
[Feng X.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Pascale S.]‘s Articles
[Lucarini V.]‘s Articles
[Feng X.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.