DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2571-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84955746676
论文题名: Estimating uncertainty caused by ocean heat transport to the North Sea: experiments downscaling EC-Earth
作者: Tian T. ; Su J. ; Boberg F. ; Yang S. ; Schmith T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 99
结束页码: 110
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; EC-Earth
; Marine downscaling
; North Sea
; Ocean heat transport
; Ocean volume transport
英文摘要: The heat content of the North Sea is determined by the surface heat flux and the ocean heat transport into the region. The uncertainty in the projected warming in the North Sea caused by ocean heat transport has rarely been quantified. The difference in the estimates using regional ocean models is known to arise from the poorly prescribed temperature boundary forcing, either provided by global models at coarse grid resolutions, or from anomaly correction (using difference of the simulation from observed climatology) without interannual variation. In this study, two marine downscaling experiments were performed using boundary temperature forcings prepared with the two above mentioned strategies: one interpolated from a global model simulation (MI: model incl. interannual variation), and the other from observed climatology with warming trends in the future ocean derived from the global model simulation (OT: observed climatol. plus trend). The comparative experiments allowed us to estimate the uncertainty caused by ocean heat transport to the North Sea. The global climate model EC-Earth CMIP5 simulations of historical and future scenarios were used to provide lateral boundary forcing for regional models. The OT boundary was found to affect deep water temperatures (below 50 m) in the North Sea because of reduced interannual variability. The difference of mean temperature changes by 2100 (MI − OT) was up to 0.5 °C near the bottom across 58°N. While the deep water temperature in the North Sea did not directly link to the large-scale atmospheric circulation, the Norwegian outflow was highly correlated with the NAO index and heat transport of the Atlantic inflow provided by EC-Earth. It was found that model uncertainty due to the choice of lateral boundary forcing could be significant in the interannual variation of thermal stratification in the northern North Sea in a long-term simulation. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53856
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, Copenhagen, Denmark; Institute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg, Bundesstr. 53, Hamburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Tian T.,Su J.,Boberg F.,et al. Estimating uncertainty caused by ocean heat transport to the North Sea: experiments downscaling EC-Earth[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-01-02)