DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2510-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84946487191
论文题名: Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks
作者: Harvey B.J. ; Shaffrey L.C. ; Woollings T.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2847
结束页码: 2860
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; CMIP3
; Drivers of change
; Polar amplification
; Storm tracks
英文摘要: There are large uncertainties in the circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change. One manifestation of this is the substantial spread in projections for the extratropical storm tracks made by different state-of-the-art climate models. In this study we perform a series of sensitivity experiments, with the atmosphere component of a single climate model, in order to identify the causes of the differences between storm track responses in different models. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble are considered. A number of potential physical drivers of storm track change are identified and their influence on the storm tracks is assessed. The experimental design aims to perturb the different physical drivers independently, by magnitudes representative of the range of values present in the CMIP3 model runs, and this is achieved via perturbations to the sea surface temperature and the sea-ice concentration forcing fields. We ask the question: can the spread of projections for the extratropical storm tracks present in the CMIP3 models be accounted for in a simple way by any of the identified drivers? The results suggest that, whilst the changes in the upper-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference have an influence on the storm track response to climate change, the large spread of projections for the extratropical storm track present in the northern North Atlantic in particular is more strongly associated with changes in the lower-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NERC, Natural Environment Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53966
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Harvey B.J.,Shaffrey L.C.,Woollings T.J.. Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-09-10)