DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2451-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84943813571
论文题名: Increasing temperature forcing reduces the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response time scale
作者: Applegate P.J. ; Parizek B.R. ; Nicholas R.E. ; Alley R.B. ; Keller K.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2001
结束页码: 2011
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Glaciology
; Greenland ice sheet
; Ice sheet modeling
; Sea level
; Semi-empirical
英文摘要: Damages from sea level rise, as well as strategies to manage the associated risk, hinge critically on the time scale and eventual magnitude of sea level rise. Satellite observations and paleo-data suggest that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) loses mass in response to increased temperatures, and may thus contribute substantially to sea level rise as anthropogenic climate change progresses. The time scale of GIS mass loss and sea level rise are deeply uncertain, and are often assumed to be constant. However, previous ice sheet modeling studies have shown that the time scale of GIS response likely decreases strongly with increasing temperature anomaly. Here, we map the relationship between temperature anomaly and the time scale of GIS response, by perturbing a calibrated, three-dimensional model of GIS behavior. Additional simulations with a profile, higher-order, ice sheet model yield time scales that are broadly consistent with those obtained using the three-dimensional model, and shed light on the feedbacks in the ice sheet system that cause the time scale shortening. Semi-empirical modeling studies that assume a constant time scale of sea level adjustment, and are calibrated to small preanthropogenic temperature and sea level changes, may underestimate future sea level rise. Our analysis suggests that the benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, in terms of avoided sea level rise from the GIS, may be greatest if emissions reductions begin before large temperature increases have been realized. Reducing anthropogenic climate change may also allow more time for design and deployment of risk management strategies by slowing sea level contributions from the GIS. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
; NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54002
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Mathematics and Geoscience, The Pennsylvania State University, DuBois, PA, United States; Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Applegate P.J.,Parizek B.R.,Nicholas R.E.,et al. Increasing temperature forcing reduces the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response time scale[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-07-08)