DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2343-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84932198298
论文题名: Enhancement of seasonal prediction of East Asian summer rainfall related to western tropical Pacific convection
作者: Lee D.Y. ; Ahn J.-B. ; Yoo J.-H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 1025
结束页码: 1042
语种: 英语
英文关键词: East Asia Rainfall Index
; East Asian summer rainfall
; Maritime continent-western tropical Pacific Index
; Reconstructed rainfall
; Western tropical Pacific convection
英文摘要: The prediction skills of climate model simulations in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and East Asian region are assessed using the retrospective forecasts of seven state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for boreal summers (June–August) during the period 1983–2005, along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data. The prediction of summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia is difficult, while the WTP has a strong correlation between model prediction and observation. We focus on developing a new approach to further enhance the seasonal prediction skill for summer rainfall in East Asia and investigate the influence of convective activity in the WTP on East Asian summer rainfall. By analyzing the characteristics of the WTP convection, two distinct patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation developing and decaying modes are identified. Based on the multiple linear regression method, the East Asia Rainfall Index (EARI) is developed by using the interannual variability of the normalized Maritime continent-WTP Indices (MPIs), as potentially useful predictors for rainfall prediction over East Asia, obtained from the above two main patterns. For East Asian summer rainfall, the EARI has superior performance to the East Asia summer monsoon index or each MPI. Therefore, the regressed rainfall from EARI also shows a strong relationship with the observed East Asian summer rainfall pattern. In addition, we evaluate the prediction skill of the East Asia reconstructed rainfall obtained by hybrid dynamical–statistical approach using the cross-validated EARI from the individual models and their MME. The results show that the rainfalls reconstructed from simulations capture the general features of observed precipitation in East Asia quite well. This study convincingly demonstrates that rainfall prediction skill is considerably improved by using a hybrid dynamical–statistical approach compared to the dynamical forecast alone. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54010
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; APEC Climate Center (APCC), Busan, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Lee D.Y.,Ahn J.-B.,Yoo J.-H.. Enhancement of seasonal prediction of East Asian summer rainfall related to western tropical Pacific convection[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-03-04)