DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2329-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84932199435
论文题名: Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean
作者: Baatsen M. ; Haarsma R.J. ; Van Delden A.J. ; de Vries H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 949
结束页码: 964
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Extratropical transition
; Re-intensification
; Tropical cyclones
; Warm seclusion
英文摘要: Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54011
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 8, Utrecht, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Baatsen M.,Haarsma R.J.,Van Delden A.J.,et al. Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-03-04)