DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2283-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028193636
论文题名: Are estimates of anthropogenic and natural influences on Australia’s extreme 2010–2012 rainfall model-dependent?
作者: Lewis S.C. ; Karoly D.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 679
结束页码: 695
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Attribution
; Australia
; Climate change
; ENSO
; Extreme rainfall
英文摘要: Australia experienced much above average rainfall in association with strong, extended La Niña conditions during 2010–2012. Was the heavy Australian rainfall influenced by La Niña conditions and/or anthropogenic greenhouse gases? We investigate the relative contributions of anthropogenic climate change and natural climatic variability to the likelihood of heavy Australian rainfall using three distinct model datasets. Area-average rainfall anomalies for model simulations with natural forcings only were compared to simulations with both anthropogenic and natural forcings using 16 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Using fraction of attributable risk to compare the likelihood of unusual rainfall between the parallel experiments, we find attribution statements are uncertain, with FAR values sensitive to the attribution parameters considered, including thresholds, regions and seasons. When heavy rainfall probabilities were next investigated in ensembles of two atmospheric general circulation models, run with and without anthropogenically-induced sea surface temperature changes, results were model-dependent. Overall, the attribution of seasonal-scale heavy Australia rainfall to a particular cause is likely more complicated than for temperature extremes. As estimates of the greenhouse gas attributable change in rainfall risk may depend on the model datasets considered, it is also useful to consider model outputs from several datasets and using various estimates of counterfactual surface conditions to establish robust attribution statements for extreme rainfall events. In contrast, comparing the likelihoods of heavy rainfall during simulated La Niña years with El Niño/neutral years reveals a substantial La Niña influence on Australian rainfall during 2010–2012 that is robust to changes in the attribution framework. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54050
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Lewis S.C.,Karoly D.J.. Are estimates of anthropogenic and natural influences on Australia’s extreme 2010–2012 rainfall model-dependent?[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-03-04)