DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2353-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84935024128
论文题名: A spatial–temporal projection model for extended-range forecast in the tropics
作者: Zhu Z. ; Li T. ; Hsu P.-C. ; He J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 1085
结束页码: 1098
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Extended-range forecast
; Intraseasonal oscillation
; Spatial–temporal projection model
; Tropical outgoing longwave radiation anomalies
英文摘要: An extended singularity value decomposition based statistical model, namely the spatial–temporal projection model (STPM), was constructed for the extended-range (10–30-day) forecast of tropical outgoing longwave radiation anomalies (OLRA). The special feature of this empirical model is using the spatial and temporal information of predictor–predictand coupled patterns to predict the temporally varying predictand field at all-time leads (i.e., 10–35 days) at once. A 10-year hindcast result shows that, different from previous statistical models, the skill scores of the STPM dropped slowly with forecast lead times. Useful skills can be detected at 30–35 day leads over most tropical regions. The highest temporal correlation coefficient of 0.4–0.5 appears over the Maritime Continent (Indian and western North Pacific monsoon regions) in boreal winter (summer), exceeding a 99 % confidence level. The STPM is also capable in predicting the spatial evolutions of convective anomalies, including the zonal and meridional propagation of OLRA. The forecast of the Real-time Multivariate MJO indices shows that the STPM attains a higher skill than previous statistical models. The STPM also shows comparable skills with the state-of-the-art dynamic models during the Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation campaign period, especially at 15-day and longer leads. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54062
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East West Road, POST Bldg. 401, Honolulu, HI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhu Z.,Li T.,Hsu P.-C.,et al. A spatial–temporal projection model for extended-range forecast in the tropics[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-03-04)