DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2229-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929996186
论文题名: Arctic summer storm track in CMIP3/5 climate models
作者: Nishii K. ; Nakamura H. ; Orsolini Y.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1311
结束页码: 1327
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic
; Climate change
; Climate model
; Cyclone
; Storm track
英文摘要: Model performance and future projection of Arctic summertime storm-track activity and associated background states are assessed on the basis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3)/5 (CMIP5) climate models. Despite some improvement in the CMIP5 models relative to the CMIP3 models, most of the climate models underestimate summertime storm-track activity over the Arctic Ocean compared to six reanalysis data sets as measured locally as the variance of subweekly fluctuations of sea level pressure. Its large inter-model spread (i.e., model-to-model differences) is correlated with that of the intensity of the Beaufort Sea High and the lower-tropospheric westerlies in the Arctic region. Most of the CMIP3/5 models project the enhancement of storm-track activity over the Arctic Ocean off the eastern Siberian and Alaskan coasts, the region called the Arctic Ocean Cyclone Maximum, in association with the strengthening of the westerlies in the warmed climate. A model with stronger enhancement of the storm-track activity tends to accompany stronger land-sea contrast in surface air temperature across the Siberian coast, which reflects greater surface warming over the continent and slower warming over the Arctic Ocean. Other processes, however, may also be likely to contribute to the future changes of the storm-track activity, which gives uncertainty in the projection by multiple climate models. Our analysis suggests that further clarification of those processes that influence storm-track activity over the Arctic is necessary for more reliable future projections of the Arctic climate. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: MEXT, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54156
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, Japan; NILU - Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Instituttveien 18, Kjeller, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Nishii K.,Nakamura H.,Orsolini Y.J.. Arctic summer storm track in CMIP3/5 climate models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-05-06)