DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2370-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925507202
论文题名: Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability
作者: García-Serrano J. ; Guemas V. ; Doblas-Reyes F.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2539
结束页码: 2555
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic multi-decadal variability
; Decadal climate prediction
; Multi-model ensemble hindcasts
英文摘要: Identifying regions sensitive to external radiative changes, including anthropogenic (sulphate aerosols and greenhouse gases) and natural (volcanoes and solar variations) forcings, is important to formulate actionable information at multi-year time-scales. Internally-generated climate variability can overcome this radiative forcing, especially at regional level, so that detecting the areas for this potential dominance is likewise critical for decadal prediction. This work aims to clarify where each contribution has the largest effect on North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) predictions in relation to the Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV). Initialized decadal hindcasts and radiatively-forced historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project are analysed to assess multi-year skill of the AMV. The initialized hindcasts reproduce better the phase of the AMV index fluctuations. The radiatively-forced component consists of a residual positive trend, although its identification is ambiguous. Initialization reduces the inter-model spread when estimating the level of AMV skill, thus reducing its uncertainty. Our results show a skilful performance of the initialized hindcasts in capturing the AMV-related SST anomalies over the subpolar gyre and Labrador Sea regions, as well as in the eastern subtropical basin, and the inability of the radiatively-forced historical runs to simulate the horseshoe-like AMV signature over the North Atlantic. Initialization outperforms empirical predictions based on persistence beyond 1–4 years ahead, suggesting that ocean dynamics play a role in the AMV predictability beyond the thermal inertia. The initialized hindcasts are also more skilful at reproducing the observed AMV teleconnection to the West African monsoon. The impact of the start date frequency is also described, showing that the standard of 5-year interval between start dates yields the main features of the AMV skill that are robustly detected in hindcasts with yearly start date sampling. This work updates previous studies, complementing them, and concludes that skilful initialized multi-model forecasts of the AMV-related climate variability can be formulated, improving uninitialized projections, until 3–6 years ahead. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54169
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain; LOCEAN-IPSL, Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), Paris, France; Centre National de Recherches Metéorologiques (CNRM/GAME), Toulouse, France; Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
Recommended Citation:
García-Serrano J.,Guemas V.,Doblas-Reyes F.J.. Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-09-10)