DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2405-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925514342
论文题名: Detection of early warning signals in paleoclimate data using a genetic time series segmentation algorithm
作者: Nikolaou A. ; Gutiérrez P.A. ; Durán A. ; Dicaire I. ; Fernández-Navarro F. ; Hervás-Martínez C.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1919
结束页码: 1933
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Abrupt climate change
; Clustering
; Genetic algorithms
; Time series segmentation
; Tipping points
; Warning signals
英文摘要: This paper proposes a time series segmentation algorithm combining a clustering technique and a genetic algorithm to automatically find segments sharing common statistical characteristics in paleoclimate time series. The segments are transformed into a six-dimensional space composed of six statistical measures, most of which have been previously considered in the detection of warning signals of critical transitions. Experimental results show that the proposed approach applied to paleoclimate data could effectively analyse Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events and uncover commonalities and differences in their statistical and possibly their dynamical characterisation. In particular, warning signals were robustly detected in the GISP2 and NGRIP (Formula Presented.) ice core data for several DO events (e.g. DO 1, 4, 8 and 12) in the form of an order of magnitude increase in variance, autocorrelation and mean square distance from a linear approximation (i.e. the mean square error). The increase in mean square error, suggesting nonlinear behaviour, has been found to correspond with an increase in variance prior to several DO events for (Formula Presented.) 90 % of the algorithm runs for the GISP2 (Formula Presented.) dataset and for (Formula Presented.) 100 % of the algorithm runs for the NGRIP (Formula Presented.) dataset. The proposed approach applied to well-known dynamical systems and paleoclimate datasets provides a novel visualisation tool in the field of climate time series analysis. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54181
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Advanced Concepts Team, European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), European Space Agency (ESA), Noordwijk, Netherlands; Department of Computer Science and Numerical Analysis, University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain; Department of Mathematics and Engineering, Universidad Loyola Andalucia, Seville, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Nikolaou A.,Gutiérrez P.A.,Durán A.,et al. Detection of early warning signals in paleoclimate data using a genetic time series segmentation algorithm[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-07-08)