DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2232-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929579577
论文题名: Influence of tropical Pacific SST on seasonal precipitation in Colombia: prediction using El Niño and El Niño Modoki
作者: Córdoba-Machado S. ; Palomino-Lemus R. ; Gámiz-Fortis S.R. ; Castro-Díez Y. ; Esteban-Parra M.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1293
结束页码: 1310
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Colombia
; El Niño
; El Niño Modoki
; Seasonal precipitation forecast
; Tropical Pacific SST
英文摘要: In this paper the forecast skill provided by the tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) associated with El Niño and El Niño Modoki over seasonal precipitation in Colombia has been evaluated through a lagged singular value decomposition analysis. The seasonal rainfall in many parts of the country can be predicted with suitable skill using the SST with a lead of one to four seasons. The response of precipitation to different phases of El Niño or El Niño Modoki is consistent with the state of the atmospheric fields of vertical velocity and velocity potential. Winter presents the best results for the prediction model, explaining the greatest percentage of square covariance fraction between the SST and lagged precipitation anomalies. The predictive capacity of these variability modes of SST for rainfall in Colombia is comparable or even higher in some seasons, particularly in winter, than the SST ability to explain the behavior of the precipitation during coetaneous seasons. The forecast of seasonal precipitation in Colombia validated in this work could be useful for planning and managing natural water resources in some regions of the country, particularly for the driest season of the year. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: FEDER, Federación Española de Enfermedades Raras
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54191
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Departamento de Física Aplicada, Universidad de Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n, Granada, Spain; Universidad Tecnológica del Chocó, Quibdó, Colombia
Recommended Citation:
Córdoba-Machado S.,Palomino-Lemus R.,Gámiz-Fortis S.R.,et al. Influence of tropical Pacific SST on seasonal precipitation in Colombia: prediction using El Niño and El Niño Modoki[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-05-06)