DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925486720
论文题名: The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model
作者: Baehr J. ; Fröhlich K. ; Botzet M. ; Domeisen D.I.V. ; Kornblueh L. ; Notz D. ; Piontek R. ; Pohlmann H. ; Tietsche S. ; Müller W.A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2723
结束页码: 2735
语种: 英语
英文摘要: A seasonal forecast system is presented, based on the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM as used for CMIP5 simulations. We describe the initialisation of the system and analyse its predictive skill for surface temperature. The presented system is initialised in the atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice component of the model from reanalysis/observations with full field nudging in all three components. For the initialisation of the ensemble, bred vectors with a vertically varying norm are implemented in the ocean component to generate initial perturbations. In a set of ensemble hindcast simulations, starting each May and November between 1982 and 2010, we analyse the predictive skill. Bias-corrected ensemble forecasts for each start date reproduce the observed surface temperature anomalies at 2–4 months lead time, particularly in the tropics. Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies show a small root-mean-square error and predictive skill up to 6 months. Away from the tropics, predictive skill is mostly limited to the ocean, and to regions which are strongly influenced by ENSO teleconnections. In summary, the presented seasonal prediction system based on a coupled climate model shows predictive skill for surface temperature at seasonal time scales comparable to other seasonal prediction systems using different underlying models and initialisation strategies. As the same model underlying our seasonal prediction system—with a different initialisation—is presently also used for decadal predictions, this is an important step towards seamless seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54232
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, KlimaCampus Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 53, Hamburg, Germany; DWD, Offenbach, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, Hamburg, Germany; NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Baehr J.,Fröhlich K.,Botzet M.,et al. The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-09-10)