DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1868-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84895045422
论文题名: Land-sea contrast, soil-atmosphere and cloud-temperature interactions: Interplays and roles in future summer European climate change
作者: Boé J. ; Terray L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 683
结束页码: 699
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Clouds
; Europe
; Land-sea contrast
; Soil-atmosphere interactions
英文摘要: Europe and in particular its southern part are expected to undergo serious climate changes during summer in response to anthropogenic forcing, with large surface warming and decrease in precipitation. Yet, serious uncertainties remain, especially over central and western Europe. Several mechanisms have been suggested to be important in that context but their relative importance and possible interplays are still not well understood. In this paper, the role of soil-atmosphere interactions, cloud-temperature interactions and land-sea warming contrast in summer European climate change and how they interact are analyzed. Models for which evapotranspiration is strongly limited by soil moisture in the present climate are found to tend to simulate larger future decrease in evapotranspiration. Models characterized by stronger present-day anti-correlation between cloud cover and temperature over land tend to simulate larger future decrease in cloud cover. Large model-to-model differences regarding land-sea warming contrast and its impacts are also found. Warming over land is expected to be larger than warming over sea, leading to a decrease in continental relative humidity and precipitation because of the discrepancy between the change in atmospheric moisture capacity over land and the change in specific humidity. Yet, it is not true for all the models over our domain of interest. Models in which evapotranspiration is not limited by soil moisture and with a weak present-day anti-correlation between cloud cover and temperature tend to simulate smaller land surface warming. In these models, change in specific humidity over land is therefore able to match the continental increase in moisture capacity, which leads to virtually no change in continental relative humidity and smaller precipitation change. Because of the physical links that exist between the response to anthropogenic forcing of important impact-related climate variables and the way some mechanisms are simulated in the context of present-day variability, this study suggests some potentially useful metrics to reduce summer European climate change uncertainties. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54301
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: URA1875 CNRS/CERFACS, Toulouse, France
Recommended Citation:
Boé J.,Terray L.. Land-sea contrast, soil-atmosphere and cloud-temperature interactions: Interplays and roles in future summer European climate change[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-03-04)